Can Turkiye’s Libya breakthrough reshape Eastern Mediterranean diplomacy?

Istanbul, Turkiye – Once adversaries, Turkiye and the leadership of eastern Libya are now building closer political and military ties. Ankara has also repaired relations with Egypt in the past few years after previous hostility, but a maritime dispute is testing how far those reconciliations can go.

On Wednesday, Turkiye’s Ministry of National Defence renewed its offer to sign a maritime boundary agreement with Cairo, arguing that Egypt could gain more than 15,000sq km (5,790sq miles) of maritime jurisdiction – a figure that is Ankara’s estimate – compared with a potential further agreement with Greece, with which Cairo signed a partial maritime deal in 2020.

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The offer came eight days after Libya’s eastern-based parliament in Tobruk reversed years of opposition and approved a maritime agreement signed between its rival, the internationally recognised government based in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, and Turkiye in 2019.

The agreement delineates maritime jurisdiction areas claimed by Turkiye and Libya in the Mediterranean, but Greece, Cyprus and Egypt argued that it infringes on their sovereign rights while Turkiye maintains that it complies with international law.

A senior Turkish official told Al Jazeera that eastern Libya’s leaders had come to recognise Ankara’s intentions.

“Turkiye is not there to use Libya for its own purposes,” the official said.

“From the very beginning, we have supported a policy of one Libya,” the official added, stressing that the country’s stability and resources should benefit all Libyans.

From confrontation to cooperation

Turkiye helped repel a 2019-2020 offensive on Tripoli by forces loyal to renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar, leader of the military forces of the eastern government. Ankara has since expanded its relations with the eastern camp while maintaining ties with Tripoli.

The senior official said Turkish security personnel based in Tripoli had remained in contact with eastern Libyan forces even during the confrontation.

“There has actually been no change in our policy. Only the results it has produced have changed,” the official said.

The diplomatic outreach has been accompanied by military and intelligence contacts.

In May, Defence Minister Yasar Guler met Saddam Haftar, Khalifa Haftar’s son, and Abdulsalam al-Zoubi, a senior defence official in the Tripoli-based government.

Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin also met Saddam Haftar in Benghazi on June 23. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan followed in August, meeting both Khalifa and Saddam Haftar.

A change in Libya’s eastern parliamentary leadership also preceded the maritime vote. On October 6, lawmakers replaced Aguila Saleh as parliament speaker with Al-Salhin Abdelnabi al-Obeidi, who previously chaired the Libyan-Turkish parliamentary friendship committee.

Galip Dalay, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, sees Ankara’s engagement with its former adversaries as a strategic gain.

“This is not merely a pragmatic or tactical gain. It is a strategic gain for Turkiye,” he told Al Jazeera.

Dalay argued that closer relations with both Libyan camps make it harder to establish Eastern Mediterranean energy and security arrangements that exclude Turkiye.

What does eastern Libya gain?

The rapprochement also reflects political calculations within the Haftar camp.

Tarek Megerisi, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, believes Saddam Haftar hopes Ankara’s influence could strengthen his own political prospects with many believing that he eventually wants to lead Libya.

The senior Turkish official said Ankara had made no specific political commitments to eastern Libyan officials beyond general principles and cooperation that would also benefit Libya.

Representatives of both Libyan camps held talks in Ankara on Friday about unifying their military structures, according to Libyan media reports. Differences over political oversight remain unresolved, and no final agreement has been announced.

But Anas El Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute, cautioned that an understanding between Libya’s rival leaders would not necessarily produce an inclusive political settlement.

“An elite bargain between two camps can leave out everyone beyond them,” he said.

Egypt: The diplomatic balancing act

The Libyan eastern parliament’s reversal has also complicated Egypt’s position. Cairo has traditionally supported the eastern leadership but opposes the maritime agreement it has now endorsed.

On October 22, Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis announced discussions with Egypt on extending their partial 2020 maritime delimitation agreement eastwards towards Cyprus.

Four days later, Egypt joined Greece, Cyprus, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union in a statement at the United Nations rejecting the Turkiye-Libya accord.

Yet Cairo and Ankara have continued rebuilding their relationship.

Turkiye’s land forces commander, General Metin Tokel, arrived in Egypt on Monday for an official visit. The Turkish Defence Ministry has also announced a joint naval exercise in Alexandria from November 4 to 9.

The senior Turkish official told Al Jazeera that Ankara remained open to cooperation on maritime boundaries and energy but would defend what it considers its rights.

“Just as other countries say they will not give up the rights they recognise as their own, the same applies to Turkiye,” the official said.

Fidan has acknowledged Egypt’s concerns and discussed the possibility of cooperation with Italy. The official clarified, however, that no formal four-country negotiating mechanism between Turkiye, Libya, Italy and Egypt has been established.

El Gomati believes Cairo’s ability to influence decisions in eastern Libya has diminished.

“Egypt still has influence, but it no longer has a veto,” he said.

Megerisi, meanwhile, argued that Turkiye’s relationship with Egypt has become too important to sacrifice over the maritime dispute. He sees room for accommodation, potentially involving Italy’s energy company Eni, which has interests in Egypt and Libya.

A breakthrough with limits

Greece maintains that the maritime agreement disregards the rights of its islands, including Crete. Turkiye rejects those claims, arguing that islands should not automatically receive the same weight as mainland coastlines when mapping out maritime boundaries and exclusive economic zones.

Megerisi said the eastern Libyan parliament’s approval strengthens the agreement’s domestic legal footing but does little to resolve the wider dispute between the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean.

“I think both sides are maximalist,” he said.

The parliamentary vote gives Ankara greater political leverage, but it does not settle competing maritime claims or clear the way for offshore energy exploration.

Ankara now wants to build on its gains in Libya and improving ties with Egypt to strengthen its position in the Eastern Mediterranean. Its aim is to develop new partnerships and regional cooperation rather than remain outside arrangements shaped largely by Greece, Cyprus and Israel.

But that will require finding common ground with countries that continue to challenge Turkiye’s maritime claims.

The senior Turkish official said Ankara’s improved relationship with Cairo had opened the door to discussing those differences directly.

“We can now discuss every issue with Egypt, and we will discuss this one too,” the official said. “We do not have to seek the approval or consent of unrelated third countries.”