Chris Mason: Reform face headwinds as they gather for conference

Reform UK begin their annual conference in Birmingham a bigger party than they were a year ago, their numbers swelled at Westminster, at Holyrood, in the Senedd and in local authorities.

But they also gather amid significant political headwinds, much of which revolve around money.

There was that whopping £5m gift to Nigel Farage from Christopher Harborne, the Thailand based British billionaire, and the long running row about whether the money should have been declared by Farage once he became an MP.

Then there is, among other things, the Metropolitan Police investigation into donations to the party during the last general election campaign.

Reform insists that it "takes pride in its stringent vetting of donations."

When the party got together in the same West Midlands venue a year ago, they were an insurgency provoking intrigue and attention and demonstrating plenty of momentum.

Indeed that momentum was so significant that it was a major factor, perhaps the major factor, in accelerating the demise of Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister, because the potential prospect of a Reform government frightened the Labour Party to its core.

Would Starmer, its then desperately unpopular leader, help or hinder their attempts to take on Farage? Hinder was the eventually overwhelming view within Labour, and so Starmer was a goner.

But politics can change, and change quickly. With Starmer out and Burnham in, there is early evidence of some support for Labour picking up. No longer are Reform comfortably leading in all the opinion polls - in some they're not leading at all. Add to this a more confident and prominent Kemi Badenoch leading the Conservatives and the recent rise too of Restore Britain, the outfit set up by the former Reform MP Rupert Lowe. And the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru won and so beat them in the devolved elections in Scotland and Wales respectively. In other words, collectively Reform's opponents appear more energised and popular.

Make no mistake, no party at a UK wide level is popular at the moment, but the scrap appears more evenly matched than it did.