Why Liverpool are ready to make Barcola third £100m signing

At first glance, Barcola looks like the natural successor to Luis Diaz.

Liverpool chose not to sign a direct replacement after the Colombian's departure last summer, but the underlying data suggests the PSG forward could fill that void.

Opta's player similarity model rates the Frenchman as the winger whose output most closely resembled Diaz's across Europe's top five leagues in 2025-26 (78%), with Mohamed Salah (65%), Lamine Yamal (61%) and Vinicius Junior (61%) the next closest matches.

A closer look, however, suggests Liverpool would not simply be replacing one winger with another.

Barcola is a left winger by trade, having played almost all of his Champions League minutes for PSG on that flank, but his game is shaped by a centre-forward's instincts. He played as a striker until the age of 17, something reflected in his movement and shot selection.

Last season, he averaged 3.5 shots per 90 minutes in Ligue 1, placing him among the division's most active shooters despite operating from wide areas.

His 9.83 expected goals (xG) ranked in the 95th percentile among wingers across Europe's top five leagues, meaning only around 5% of wide players consistently found themselves in better goalscoring positions.

Barcola converted those chances into 11 league goals, outperforming his xG, while no PSG player or Ligue 1 winger recorded a higher xG total during the 2025-26 campaign.

Those instincts are reflected in how he attacks defenders. Barcola was the only player across Europe's top five leagues to average more than two shot-ending carries per 90 minutes (2.06), illustrating his ability to drive at opponents before creating shooting opportunities for himself.

He also averaged 8.69 touches in the opposition penalty area per 90 minutes - the seventh-highest figure among more than 1,500 eligible players - reinforcing the profile of a winger who consistently occupies goalscoring positions.

His shot map highlights a player who attacks dangerous central areas rather than settling for speculative efforts from distance. Only Ousmane Dembele had a better combined shot volume with chance creation in Ligue 1, underlining Barcola's rare ability to both finish attacks and create opportunities for team-mates.

The comparison with Salah is equally revealing. While both pose a significant goal threat, Barcola is a more direct ball carrier.

He attempted more take-ons per 90 than the Egypt forward last season (4.26 to 3.38), but created fewer chances (2.16 to 2.33), attempted far fewer crosses (1.15 to 4.89) and through balls (0.25 to 0.59).

The numbers point towards a player who looks to eliminate defenders himself rather than orchestrate attacks from wide areas.

There are also signs that his game continues to evolve under Luis Enrique.

Barcola's passing profile across his three Champions League campaigns at PSG has become increasingly focused on progressing play in the final third, reflecting greater tactical maturity. Rather than dribbling at every opportunity, he now shows a better understanding of when to accelerate attacks and when to recycle possession.

His work without the ball is another reason Liverpool's recruitment team are understood to admire him. Barcola ranked ninth across Europe's top five leagues for possessions won in the final third last season, a metric that reflects the aggressive pressing and intensity likely to be demanded under Andoni Iraola.

That profile may suit Liverpool's evolving attack. With Wirtz excelling at releasing runners between the lines, and Ekitike and Isak expected to occupy central defenders, Liverpool arguably need another player capable of attacking space rather than demanding the ball to feet.

Barcola's willingness to make penetrative runs and arrive in goalscoring positions could provide exactly that.

Perhaps most encouragingly for any prospective buyer, there is reason to believe Barcola has not yet reached his ceiling.

A late physical developer, he has already transformed from a promising Lyon academy graduate into a two-time Champions League winner with PSG.

At just 23, his blend of pace, intelligent movement, elite shot volume, relentless pressing and growing creative output suggests one of Europe's most complete young wide forwards is still improving.